There have been two schools of thought concerning Rory McIlroy’s start to 2019. McIlroy’s win at the Players Championship quiets the debate, but doesn’t exactly end it.
The first argument has been that, despite going winless in his first seven starts this season, McIlroy was off to a tremendous start. His worst result of 2019 has been at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he tied for sixth. That’s his worst finish. And McIlroy’s strokes-gained stats are equally preposterous: he’s leading the PGA Tour off the tee, tee to green, and in total strokes gained. Anyone who can keep that up will win two or three events just by accident.
The other school of thought concerning McIlroy has been that he wrestled with a ghost that has haunted him occasionally throughout his career: an inability to string four rounds together. In his first six events of 2019, McIlroy averaged 68.1 strokes per round on Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays — but on Sundays (prior to the Players), that average had been 69.8. The difference isn’t dramatic, but it certainly is discernible; that’s nearly two strokes higher. And although McIlroy already has posted four rounds of 65 or lower in 2019, none of them has come on a weekend, and he’s done better than 69 on Sunday just once. McIlroy is playing worse (although not badly) on Sundays, the argument went; he just is.
After Sunday’s win at TPC Sawgrass, the verdict is in: both sides are right. Yes, McIlroy is playing exceptional golf. But yes, he’s also saving his least-exceptional golf for his final rounds.
True to his early-season form, McIlroy closed the Players with a final-round 70 — right at his Sunday average. McIlroy’s season to date has proven that’s good enough to keep him in the mix. And on Sunday, he proved that it’s also good enough to win, as long as he takes care of business on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. But for as long as that’s how McIlroy strings four rounds together — play three rounds in fifth gear, then spend Sunday on cruise control — everyone else will be on his heels until the end.
It’s not fair to hold McIlroy to that standard — to expect him to play virtually mistake-free for three days, and then to nuke the field on Sunday. But for as long as his current formula holds, he will constantly be in the mix while also remaining vulnerable. Franceso Molinari proved that at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (where he did nuke the field with a final-round 64), and Jim Furyk proved it again on Sunday at the Players (where his fourth-round 67 left him just one shot behind McIlroy).
To be clear, this isn’t a bad thing. It’s basically the same formula that McIlroy followed at his peak in the second half of 2014, when he won his last two majors. In both the Open Championship and PGA Championship that year, McIlroy never shot worse than 68 in either event’s first three rounds; but in both tournaments, his Sunday round was his highest score of the week.
Recall that the first half of 2014 followed a different pattern. That spring, McIlroy was good for at least one sloppy round per week, and it repeatedly cost him: a Sunday 74 at the Honda Classic (which he lost in a playoff), a second-round 77 at the Masters (he finished T8), a Friday 78 at the Memorial (he climbed back to T15), and a weekend 74-73 at the U.S. Open (good enough for a distant T23 behind Martin Kaymer).
In other words, even when McIlroy has been at his otherworldly best, he hasn’t blown anyone out of the water — and hasn’t left himself much margin for error. For now, that’s working. For now.
Whether that formula can bring McIlroy his first major title in five years — and whether he can even sustain his current pace — is anyone’s guess. If he can, then obviously, he’ll spend an awful lot of time near the tops of leaderboards and win his fair share.
But the past three months also prove that dominant ball-striking doesn’t necessarily lead to dominant wins. If McIlroy doesn’t (or can’t) keep his foot on the gas on Sundays, then he can be passed. And frequently, he will be.