Jack Nicklaus had a theory about closing out golf tournaments.
Most people are chokers, the theory went — fundamentally uncomfortable in the spotlight. Nicklaus figured that, if he found his way toward the tops of leaderboards on Sundays, most weeks the competition would melt away.
Simple though the theory may be, it’s hard to argue with the results.
That’s what makes it so hard to figure out Tony Finau.
On Sunday, Finau lost a two-hole, sudden-death playoff against Max Homa at the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles — Finau’s fourth top-five finish in a row, and his sixth top-10 finish in his last 11 events. The effort advances Finau to the world’s No. 13 ranking, and reaffirms him as one of the game’s steadiest players.
And yet, something clearly is wrong.
Finau is the only top-20 player in the world with just one professional win to his career resume’. And even that oversimplifies the picture. Since October 2017, Finau has amassed 32 top-10 finishes worldwide — and zero wins. Nine of those finishes have been in second place. Nine! He could just as easily have four or five wins by now, and no one would think it odd.
It’s not like Finau is a choker. He shot 64 at the Genesis on Sunday; in his previous tournament, the Saudi International, he finished T2 with a final-round 67; in the start immediately before that, his T2 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open included a final-round 69. The last time Finau failed to break par on Sunday was at the U.S. Open, when he shot a 1-over 71 at Winged Foot.
To be sure, Finau has been the victim of extraordinarily bad luck. If Homa fails to pull off a miracle pitch from against the base of a tree on Sunday’s first playoff hole, then Finau is a two-time PGA Tour winner. If Patrick Reed hadn’t taken embedded-ball relief at the Farmers Insurance Open, then maybe Finau’s T2 finish turns into a playoff spot.
For a player with so many “ifs” in his recent memory, though, Finau’s profile is now clear.
When Finau racked up 17 top-10s and five runner-up finishes between October 2017 and August 2019, it would have been irresponsible to paint Finau as someone who couldn’t close — because his sample size was still too small. Eighteen months later, though, there’s no such dilemma. Finau’s sample size is plenty big; and the picture is paints is complicated.
Finau isn’t a choker; far from it. He also isn’t a closer — but he isn’t far from that. Instead, Finau is something in the middle: a player for whom, clearly, something is happening on Sundays — a great deal of which has been out of his control. But no one finishes one or two steps behind so consistently without some responsibility for the result. Finau’s Sunday speed isn’t bad; yet it’s consistently been not quite good enough.
A couple of years ago, I spoke to Zac Blair after a Korn Ferry Tour win that effectively sealed his return to the PGA Tour, and I asked him about winning: is it a matter of simply putting yourself in position mathematically, or is there something more to it? “I think it’s a little bit of both, honestly,” Blair said. “I firmly believe that there’s definitely a set of people that just know how to win. A lot of people get in the hunt a lot, but there’s a lot of people who don't close it and don’t win. Some people just have a knack for making something happen when they need it to happen.”
Finau’s talent for putting himself in position to win is nearly unmatched. But by now, it is undeniable that Finau — at this point in his career, at least — lacks whatever else is needed to take matters into his own hands. Finau isn’t one of the chokers that Nicklaus could count on to slide down the leaderboard. But he doesn’t have a knack for climbing on top, either.
. . .
You might also enjoy reading…